CS Rarity List [WIP] - status update on page 75

[kee;]

- We may need to look at off-list VRs, and list VRs that are not 08s (e.g. Pink Shima BFW)

I have been following this thread a bit and even though I don't think I've posted I can agree to this very strongly. I have been wondering when it would be brought up and looking at the rarity changes a while back, some of these pets do seem to be as rare if not more rare than some lower list pets. Though again, re-releases may skew that.

I’ve been following this form the beginning as well, and helped with the count before that lovely scrip was made, and I also think this should be included, especially the VRs that are not currently on the list that realistically should be.
Though I do think this should be done after the current list pets are all dealt with.

-kee

[Solloby]

One thing I can use our current data to determine, is the rarities of July dogs to each other, and August dogs to each other etc.

Using the following methodology:
1. List the values of each July dog, grouped by litter
2. Calculate total amount of dogs adopted per litter
3. Weight the values so that I am looking at an equal amount of adopted dogs for each litter (400 per litter outcome)
4. Compare the weighted values for all July dogs
5. Use Chitests to determine equality

I attempted weighting by total litter amount first, but that gave me an incorrect list where Sunback was below Nonswirl and Nontag, which we know it isn't due to it being OMGSR very briefly. Using the new methodology I came up with the following list. On both attempts the Moonswirl always ended up the same value as the Dogtag.

1 Sunjewel
2 July PPS Moonswirl Dogtag
3 Coontail
4 Sunback Noncoon Nonjewel Nonswirl Nontag
5 GWJ

Compared to Rarity Change Data:
- Sunjewel went OMGSR in Jan 2012 which is a fair distance from the other pets, suggesting it is correct to place on the top of the list.
- Moonswirl, Dogtag & July PPS went OMGSR one month after each other (April, May, June 2012). This suggests their rarity is very close, so it is ok to put them on the same tier.
- Coontail went OMGSR in July 2013 based on rarity change discussion (not on the list itself), and has dropped down to VR. This suggests it is correct to place next in the list.
- Sunback went OMGSR briefly and the nons went with it so this suggests they are equal rarity)
- GWJ has never been OMGSR so this suggests it is correct to place it at the bottom of the list.

Whether this can be used on the dogs released in the middle of July/August, I am not confident.

[Lya]

That's very interesting to look at, Solloby!

Anyway, I'm bored.
So if anybody would be up to giving me actual ID ranges for the following, I'd just count something of that.

• Skelebun Release
• Other Store Pets Releases
• Re-release ranges
• off-list pets to look at (whatever you want)

[Solloby]

A Skelebun count would be *awesome*.
Skelebun was released October 2009, and it was rereleased in 2010 by accident I think?
http://www.chickensmoothie.com/viewpet.php?id=25597907

[stan.]

I want to help with ID ranges if that's possiblE,,,

The skelebun was released on the store on October 22nd and it was available till November 17th. pluuus the accidental release in 2010's december 18th

First pet of October 22nd has the ID of 5086498
First pet of November 17th has the ID of 6026923
(Last pet of November 17th has the ID of 6049550)


First pet of December 18th (2010) has the ID of 25432641
Last pet of December 18th (2010) has the ID of 25631198

For the first time period there are 940425 pets between the two IDs, for the second one there are 198557.

If these ID ranges work I'd be very glad to look for other pet's.
I'll try to go through the 22nd IDs to find the first ever adopted skelebun to see if it narrows down some stuff.

[cellar x elijah]

The first skelebun is ID 5090758 owned by Nick actually, which probably means it was a test adopt but it's still on a user account, so it counts. xP

~ElijahWilkes

[LLHBBB]

A Skelebun count would be *awesome*.
Skelebun was released October 2009, and it was rereleased in 2010 by accident I think?
http://www.chickensmoothie.com/viewpet.php?id=25597907

Yes, I have one also

[nickjr]

@Lya all rerelease ID ranges if you're interested

I obviously got nowhere over spring break -pulls Real Life into a headlock grr- Things are gonna stall on my end again until who knows when

[Solloby]

One thing I learned from my data is that I can't mix July & August. Accidentally tried calculating the heart rats amongst my july rats. Did not work. That's ok, to be expected.

Our data shows Light Speckle Rat as more common than its counterparts despite us knowing from rarity changes that it is equal or even slightly rarer. No idea what to do with that information.

One thing I did try doing is using the data combined with rarity change archives data (that thing being out of date is very problematic; searching the rarity changes thread helps but not everyone used text when posting images of rarity changes).

So this is the above July dog tier list draft with rats added (plus UR Butterbun because it went OMGSR with them - can someone please double check that in case I made an error?):

1 Sunjewel
2 July PPS Moonswirl Dogtag
3 Coontail Heavy Speckle Rat Medium Speckle Rat Light Speckle Rat Dark Heart Rat UR Butterbun
4 Sunback Noncoon Nonjewel Nonswirl Nontag Light Pawprint Rat Dark Pawprint Rat
5 GWJ

Notes:
> Yes the tiers are very heavily grouped. That's just how the pets naturally sit; there's not a lot of difference between them.
> Light Heart Rat never went omgsr so must wait to be placed with the Augusts.
> Dark Pawprint Rat never went OMGSR while Light Pawprint did, but it was in Dec 2013 so if the rerelease didn't happen, it almost certainly would have in Jan 2014 is my thinking. Because the July dog litters all went OMGSR and Tess never intended for them to be that rare, it is likely these rats as July pets were given a rerelease boost. This is why they never returned to OMGSR and neither did the nons or sunback.
> The rat data and statistical tests aren't going as well as the dogs, possibly due to the small litter sizes and the pets being underadopted compared to the dogs (no adoption limits back then remember). I think we can have more confidence in our August & September dog data; we'll just have to do the best we can with the August & Sept rats.

[nickjr]

What would happen if we treated July and August as one big month? The July-only dogs should still be rarer than the July-August and August-only dogs.

Not sure what happens when we add the rereleases to the original adopt data, though...