CS Rarity List [WIP] - status update on page 75

[nickjr]

Are we still alive or has real life claimed us all?

[Solloby]

Sorry I forgot about things a bit, indeed I am busy!
I am still not sure how we can do cross-litter comparisons.
I am hoping my original theory regarding them can be used. I will just put it here for reference:

I originally weighted them all evenly, but that unfairly favoured litters with higher outcomes. Galaxies came out very common because there were only two outcomes, while Toxics came out rare because there were 5 outcomes. Back in 08 we didn't have litter limits but these days litters with more outcomes let you adopt more, so I assumed that galaxies would be released at a lower rate than toxics because of the number of outcomes. I am not sure this assumption is correct though, or that % wise they are released exactly based on their amount of outcomes (e.g. 2 galaxies for every 5 toxics because of outcomes, which is what my data simulates).

I suppose we could try to match this assumption against rerelease data for galaxies vs toxics for example, to see if it holds? We could also see if our results align well to the rarity changes archive. I don't suppose anyone wants to put all the rerelease data into one file and run numbers on different galaxy outcomes vs different toxic outcomes? I don't have the time right now I'm afraid ^^;

[nickjr]

I suppose we could try to match this assumption against rerelease data for galaxies vs toxics for example, to see if it holds?

This sounds good to me. Would want to do it at least for BOTH 2008 and 2009, if not also 2010 and beyond; I imagine 2008 is going to be an outlier with rerelease %s since I don't think Tess did as many calculations as she/Nick do with rereleases now (wasn't it done almost on a whim/with the intention of being a gift? Can't remember)

I'm also super busy idk where all of my free time went

[nickjr]

I'm learning (introductory crash course-esque) data science in an extracurricular activity right now and I think I might be able to use a little of what I learned to try to pull conclusions from the data. The problem is that I'm ridiculously busy and barely even have time to take care of myself OTL Earliest I can think of doing this is late December ("You're in the US and are a hermit on the Internet! Can't you do it during Thanksgiving break?" I have a doctor's appointment and exam preparation and most likely follow-up stuff like blood tests to do during Thanksgiving break). Plus it's introductory so I'm just gonna be running basic stuff, like... plotting bar graphs to see if there are any patterns I can eyeball first LOL

[Fizzlebee]

I'm learning (introductory crash course-esque) data science in an extracurricular activity right now and I think I might be able to use a little of what I learned to try to pull conclusions from the data. The problem is that I'm ridiculously busy and barely even have time to take care of myself OTL Earliest I can think of doing this is late December ("You're in the US and are a hermit on the Internet! Can't you do it during Thanksgiving break?" I have a doctor's appointment and exam preparation and most likely follow-up stuff like blood tests to do during Thanksgiving break). Plus it's introductory so I'm just gonna be running basic stuff, like... plotting bar graphs to see if there are any patterns I can eyeball first LOL

Any insight you can give is better than what we have right now lol. I'm pretty sure we're all in the overbooked and overwhelmed with life category right now. Maybe we'll finally finish this project up during the winter holidays heh.

[nickjr]

Just realized not everyone follows the Ask the Staff thread as closely as I do haha

This is of interest maybe? viewtopic.php?f=20&t=3441353&p=114305705#p114305705

In other news I will probably be spending my winter break catching up with my academics because I have been ill and missed literally a month's worth of classes (been in the hospital for over a week now, probably won't be discharged until later this weekend, and even afterwards I'll still need to finish recovering on my own, which could easily take more than a month--although I guess I'd be like 90% healed after two weeks)

The good thing is that my day-to-day schedule will be a lot simpler since I won't be going to class. So I might take a day or two off from my academics to finally sit down and apply my AP Stat knowledge lol (as long as my parents don't catch me... can't believe I gotta worry about that)

[ThunderCedar]

Just realized not everyone follows the Ask the Staff thread as closely as I do haha

This is of interest maybe? viewtopic.php?f=20&t=3441353&p=114305705#p114305705

heck... that's interesting. this means that you've got as high of a chance of getting any given 09 vr for december 18th... as any given 2014 rare?.. since only about 1 or 2% of pets are tweaked to have lower chances and all the others are equally as likely to happen.
1 or 2% is a really low number I'd assume they only tweak the main lists then?... what the ?

This makes me wonder if the worth gap between main lists and septembers/advents is getting increasingly bigger with time...

[Solloby]

Wouldn't that decrease the worth gap instead of increase it? Or have I misinterpreted.

[Fizzlebee]

I think it would slightly decrease the worth gaps.

For example, say there's 100 Sunjewels and 500 BE Galaxies. If they have an equal probability of being released during December 18th, it is likely that roughly the same amount of each pet will be released. Let's pretend 5 Sunjewels and 5 BE Galaxies will be released this year. Those 5 releases have a larger impact on the Sunjewel stock than the Galaxy since 5 is 1/20th of the (pretend) current Sunjewel stock and only 1/100th of the BE Galaxy stock.

There's also the idea that rereleases are going to active accounts, whereas a number of these older pets are sitting in inactive accounts. It probably doesn't have drastic effects on rarity since obviously not everyone gets Mainlist pets on December 18th. :c
Just food for thought

[ThunderCedar]

I didn't mean gaps between pets on those lists
I meant gaps between the two literal lists

If you're only tweaking main lists but leaving advent and septs as is then advents are getting increasingly closer in rarity to regular 09 rares/vrs