2021 Advent - Casual Chat V.1 [read first post]

[Shinryu]

So i’ve been on CS for many years on and off … and i honestly cannot remember if i ever adopted from a december 18th box!! I returned from hiatus in october, and i remember reading the help articles about UR pets and how they were only released in that box and i have been going absolutely feral with anticipation about the box since then! im so heavily wishing to be lucky this year now that im taking the site serious T.T Does anyone know the actual odds of getting a UR or listie? what pool does the box pull from? does it matter what TIME you adopt the box? SO MANY QUESTIONS

It doesn't matter at which time you adopt from the boxes, the odds for getting any pet are the same regardless of the time of day, it is not first come first serve^^
Currently we have a system in place where there are actually 3 boxes to adopt from instead of one box like it used to be in the past - one with recent rares, one with old rares, and one with very rare+ pets!
The new UR pets of the year can be pulled from any of these boxes, though!

Also, while we do not know the exact percentages for each pet, Tess has confirmed previously that the newest UR pet actually has a higher chance of adoption than other pets do, specifically to ensure there will be enough put into circulation on release c:

Interesting question, I don't think many people consider that :) it is almost completely random, but with a few exceptions

Instead of there being a hard limit (e.g. 20 sun jewels limit) it'll be a probability (so you might have a smaller chance of getting a sunjewel but you never lose the chance even if people have already adopted a bunch of them). We estimate how many people are likely to adopt and predict which pets will probably change in rarity as a result. We don't want pets to drop down in rarity too much. And for some extra rare pets we want more to be released so they're not impossible to collect. But about 95-99% of the pets in there have an equal probability of being adopted, we only have to tweak a few.

Usually the most probable outcomes are the brand new UR pets, since they would be SUPER rare if we didn't give out a bunch in their first year. It might not feel like it since URs are so rare, but when you adopt from the box you actually have about 4 - 8 times the chance of getting a new UR compared to any other outcome. That's why you sometimes see lucky people getting more than one UR at once

Another tidbit is that if a litter has mixed rarities (rare and very rare), you can only get an outcome that matches the box it came from:

Basically it works like this: Which outcome a pet turns into is actually determined the very moment you adopt it. Us users cannot see this -only admins can- so to us it looks like a pet is growing up and splitting into outcomes, but as far as the system is concerned, each newborn you adopt already has its outcome set from adoption. As such, if you get a newborn from a mixed litter in the re-release, only the rare outcomes actually have a chance of coming from that box, and so on.
That's how it's been possible in the past years to ensure that people don't end up with common outcomes from mixed litters, too.

edit: Accidentally attributed the quote to Tess for a second lmao, this is an older post of mine paraphrasing a response Tess gave me in a previous year

[Arcanine Luver]

So i’ve been on CS for many years on and off … and i honestly cannot remember if i ever adopted from a december 18th box!! I returned from hiatus in october, and i remember reading the help articles about UR pets and how they were only released in that box and i have been going absolutely feral with anticipation about the box since then! im so heavily wishing to be lucky this year now that im taking the site serious T.T Does anyone know the actual odds of getting a UR or listie? what pool does the box pull from? does it matter what TIME you adopt the box? SO MANY QUESTIONS

It doesn't matter at which time you adopt from the boxes, the odds for getting any pet are the same regardless of the time of day, it is not first come first serve^^
Currently we have a system in place where there are actually 3 boxes to adopt from instead of one box like it used to be in the past - one with recent rares, one with old rares, and one with very rare+ pets!
The new UR pets of the year can be pulled from any of these boxes, though!

Also, while we do not know the exact percentages for each pet, Tess has confirmed previously that the newest UR pet actually has a higher chance of adoption than other pets do, specifically to ensure there will be enough put into circulation on release c:

Interesting question, I don't think many people consider that it is almost completely random, but with a few exceptions

Instead of there being a hard limit (e.g. 20 sun jewels limit) it'll be a probability (so you might have a smaller chance of getting a sunjewel but you never lose the chance even if people have already adopted a bunch of them). We estimate how many people are likely to adopt and predict which pets will probably change in rarity as a result. We don't want pets to drop down in rarity too much. And for some extra rare pets we want more to be released so they're not impossible to collect. But about 95-99% of the pets in there have an equal probability of being adopted, we only have to tweak a few.

Usually the most probable outcomes are the brand new UR pets, since they would be SUPER rare if we didn't give out a bunch in their first year. It might not feel like it since URs are so rare, but when you adopt from the box you actually have about 4 - 8 times the chance of getting a new UR compared to any other outcome. That's why you sometimes see lucky people getting more than one UR at once

Another tidbit is that if a litter has mixed rarities (rare and very rare), you can only get an outcome that matches the box it came from:

Basically it works like this: Which outcome a pet turns into is actually determined the very moment you adopt it. Us users cannot see this -only admins can- so to us it looks like a pet is growing up and splitting into outcomes, but as far as the system is concerned, each newborn you adopt already has its outcome set from adoption. As such, if you get a newborn from a mixed litter in the re-release, only the rare outcomes actually have a chance of coming from that box, and so on.
That's how it's been possible in the past years to ensure that people don't end up with common outcomes from mixed litters, too.

edit: Accidentally attributed the quote to Tess for a second lmao, this is an older post of mine paraphrasing a response Tess gave me in a previous year

thank you so much for taking the time to give me this response!! im even more excited now c:

[Shinryu]

Fingers crossed for you then, haha, especially seeing how long it's been since you last (if ever) grabbed the box!
The three box system is relatively new, with this year being the third time to use it, but I personally think it's a great improvement. Now we'll have no more people ending up with three recent rares while watching others pull multiple high value pets, but thanks to the new URs dropping from all boxes, people still do have the chance to get extra lucky to spice things up a bit c:

[Daxx]

So i’ve been on CS for many years on and off … and i honestly cannot remember if i ever adopted from a december 18th box!! I returned from hiatus in october, and i remember reading the help articles about UR pets and how they were only released in that box and i have been going absolutely feral with anticipation about the box since then! im so heavily wishing to be lucky this year now that im taking the site serious T.T Does anyone know the actual odds of getting a UR or listie? what pool does the box pull from? does it matter what TIME you adopt the box? SO MANY QUESTIONS

It doesn't matter at which time you adopt from the boxes, the odds for getting any pet are the same regardless of the time of day, it is not first come first serve^^
Currently we have a system in place where there are actually 3 boxes to adopt from instead of one box like it used to be in the past - one with recent rares, one with old rares, and one with very rare+ pets!
The new UR pets of the year can be pulled from any of these boxes, though!

Also, while we do not know the exact percentages for each pet, Tess has confirmed previously that the newest UR pet actually has a higher chance of adoption than other pets do, specifically to ensure there will be enough put into circulation on release c:

Interesting question, I don't think many people consider that it is almost completely random, but with a few exceptions

Instead of there being a hard limit (e.g. 20 sun jewels limit) it'll be a probability (so you might have a smaller chance of getting a sunjewel but you never lose the chance even if people have already adopted a bunch of them). We estimate how many people are likely to adopt and predict which pets will probably change in rarity as a result. We don't want pets to drop down in rarity too much. And for some extra rare pets we want more to be released so they're not impossible to collect. But about 95-99% of the pets in there have an equal probability of being adopted, we only have to tweak a few.

Usually the most probable outcomes are the brand new UR pets, since they would be SUPER rare if we didn't give out a bunch in their first year. It might not feel like it since URs are so rare, but when you adopt from the box you actually have about 4 - 8 times the chance of getting a new UR compared to any other outcome. That's why you sometimes see lucky people getting more than one UR at once

Another tidbit is that if a litter has mixed rarities (rare and very rare), you can only get an outcome that matches the box it came from:

Basically it works like this: Which outcome a pet turns into is actually determined the very moment you adopt it. Us users cannot see this -only admins can- so to us it looks like a pet is growing up and splitting into outcomes, but as far as the system is concerned, each newborn you adopt already has its outcome set from adoption. As such, if you get a newborn from a mixed litter in the re-release, only the rare outcomes actually have a chance of coming from that box, and so on.
That's how it's been possible in the past years to ensure that people don't end up with common outcomes from mixed litters, too.

edit: Accidentally attributed the quote to Tess for a second lmao, this is an older post of mine paraphrasing a response Tess gave me in a previous year

I didnt know this! I've never gotten a UR from a box and ive done it like 5 times 😅 but hey, maybe this year will be lucky!!

[! october]

so happy to have found one of this outcome i missed; i love the freckles and eyes!!

[iHolli]

{I never knew it all worked like that! Thanks for the info Zel! That's really cool :0cc certainly gives me a much more positive vibe about my chances at a UR xD}

.Holli.

[Fierce Wings]

I would absolutely lose my mind if we got a PPS of the smiledon lion from this summer event.

And speaking of lions last night's is proving to be difficult to get for me since so many people are looking for it right now. Some are offering C$ but I'm broke so I can't do that. 😔

[Shinryu]

Getting a UR from any of the boxes certainly will still feel like it's super rare, but that's simply because of the sheer number of outcomes in each box. After all, if you have a box with 100 pets and 8 of them are the same outcome, that's still 92 other things you could get!^^

I do also strongly advise to label your newborns as you adopt them. Seen quite a few cases already where people ended up not remembering which of two newborns was an old rare and which was a very rare because they both came from mixed litters xD

[Faybell]

^ Oh that’s a good idea, thanks for the tip! I didn’t have that issue last year just because of the pets I got only had either rare or VR+ outcomes (nothing was mixed rarity). I probably won’t be as lucky this year tho so I’ll def label them. :3

But yeah it’s also pretty cool you can get the newly released UR from any box. I didn’t know that and could be helpful identifying a pet on the very off chance I get one from a rare box.

[StardewAddict]

aaaa hopefully i get a ur from a box this year! i know they'll be Very difficult to trade for